Only 20 Tests remain in this WTC Final Race cycle, and five teams can still mathematically qualify for the final. Competition is so intense that every game counts. So let’s dive into what each of these teams needs to do to qualify for the WTC final.
World Test Championship (2023-2025) – Points Table
Pos | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | NR | Points | PCT |
1 | India | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 62.820 |
2 | Australia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 62.500 |
3 | Sri Lanka | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 55.560 |
4 | New Zealand | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 50.000 |
5 | South Africa | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 47.620 |
6 | England | 19 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 93 | 40.790 |
7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 33.330 |
8 | Bangladesh | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 30.560 |
9 | West Indies | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 18.520 |
WTC Final Race:India’s Qualification Scenario
- Current Points Percentage: 62.82%
- Remaining Matches: 1 Test vs New Zealand at home, 5 Tests vs Australia away
More recent losses to New Zealand have complicated India’s journey to the WTC final, while though currently top of the pile, their lead over Australia is slight.
It needs to win the final Test of the series in progress against New Zealand, in Mumbai, before logging a 3-2 win in the away series against Australia to ensure a place in the final. That would take their points percentage to 64.04%, provided it stays clear of penalties for slow over rates.
However, if Australia beat Sri Lanka 2-0 in their two-Test series and then go on to win two games against India, for example, that would be enough to take their maximum points percentage to 60.53%. New Zealand’s chances would also fall away if they lose in Mumbai but then go on to beat England 3-0 at home, taking their percentage to 57.14%. The only other team that would then be in a position to overhaul India’s percentage would be South Africa.
Drawing the series in Australia 2-2, India slipped to 60.53 percent while Australia went up to 62.28 percent, assuming India won in Mumbai and the Australians beat Sri Lanka 2-0. If India loses the Test to Sri Lanka in Mumbai next week, the New Zealanders may reach 64.29 percent in case of a 3-0 result against England. India will then need to win four and draw one in Australia to ensure a final place.
This, however, would still be enough for India to qualify if some of the other teams competing with it lose or draw and therefore fail to get full points. For example, if New Zealand loses in Mumbai and manages only a 2-0 win over England, they will reach only 52.38%. Another example could be that in case SA loses any one of its five remaining Tests, its percentage will reach 61.11%. Similarly, in case Australia beats India 3-2 but draws 1-1 in Sri Lanka, its percentage will be 60.53%.
New Zealand’s Road to the WTC Final
- Current Points Percentage: 50.00%
- Remaining Matches: 1 Test against India away, 3 Tests against England at home.
At the start of their tour to India, New Zealand’s hopes appeared bleak. The two wins, though, have kept them in contention. They can reach 64.29% by winning all four remaining Tests and thereby keep themselves in contention, although this doesn’t guarantee qualification. A single defeat in the remaining matches will see them fall back to 57.14%.
Route of South Africa
- Current Points Percentage: 47.62%
- Besides these, there will be one Test away against Bangladesh, two at home against Sri Lanka, and two home Tests against Pakistan.
Then, of course, there is South Africa in the fray. The Sanjay trivial danger and win all the remaining five matches, their points percentage will rise to 69.44%, and with that they can be pretty sure of a place in the final as only one of either India or Australia can go beyond this percentage.
Four victories and a draw would have them at 63.89 percent, and five wins and a single loss would take them to 61.11 percent, where theoretically a clean sweep or limited points against will be sufficient, depending upon other results. Sitting pretty is their schedule too, as they host Sri Lanka and Pakistan in the next two assignments after the current one against Bangladesh.
Australia’s Prospects
- Current Points Percentage: 62.50 %
- Remaining Matches: 5 Tests vs India at home, and 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka away
Those defeats to New Zealand have given Australia a good chance. If they manage to beat India in the series 3-2 along with a win of 1-0 in Sri Lanka, their percentage of points will increase to 62.28%, taking them ahead of India. Of course, New Zealand can overtake this, too, but that will be possible only if they win all their remaining matches.
The only other country that can race past Australia would be South Africa, should New Zealand stumble. Australia has seven games remaining and needs to win five of these should they not want to depend on other results to confirm their qualification.
Sri Lanka Travel Tips
- Current Points Percentage: 55.56% Remaining Matches: 2 Tests v. South Africa (away), 2 Tests v. Australia (home)
Sri Lanka are gathering momentum, with 24 points from the last two Tests, bringing them back into contention. If they win all their remaining matches, they will pick up 48 more points and reach a percentage of 69.23%, which will ensure them a final berth regardless of other results. They will end up with 61.54% if they win three and lose one, which might be enough to keep them in the race depending on how other teams perform.
Chances for England
- Current Points Percentage: 40.79%
- Remaining Matches: 3 Tests away against New Zealand
Their two losses in Pakistan have badly dented the hopes of England. Even if they beat New Zealand 3-0 in their last series, they can only reach a maximum percentage of 48.86%, which won’t be enough for a top-two finish.
Situation in Pakistan
- Current Points Percentage: 33.33%
- Remaining Matches: 2 Tests away against South Africa, 2 Tests at home against West Indies.
The revival of Pakistan in home form has come a little too late. Even a full haul from the last four Tests can take them to a maximum percentage of 52.38%, which would still keep them far away from qualifying for the final.
Prospects of Bangladesh
- Current Points Percentage: 30.56%
- Remaining Matches: 1 Test v South Africa (home), 2 Tests v West Indies (away) Bangladesh’s three latest losses to India and South Africa have seen them slip from 45.83% to 30.56%. Even wins in all three of their remaining matches would take their percentage to a maximum of 47.92%, which would be insufficient for a top-two finish. The West Indies Qualification Scenario •\tlearned points percentage: 18.52% • Remaining Matches: 2 Tests vs Bangladesh at home, 2 Tests vs Pakistan away. West Indies are already out of the race, having scored a paltry 20 points from a possible 108 so far. Even wins in their last four matches will see their maximum points percentage soar to insufficiently 43.59% qualifying mark for the WTC final berth.
Conclusion
The WTC final race is getting hotter as there are a number of teams in the race. Every Test match is important, and one win or loss will bring one or another team into the fray. Fans worldwide will be glued to their screens as these teams battle for qualification to the WTC final. Will India make it to the final for the third time in a row, or will Australia or South Africa steal the thunder? Only time will tell!
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